Prioritization worksheet — impact × confidence

When more than four items compete for attention, pick the ones that maximize expected learning or impact. A simple numeric approach helps avoid bias:

Step 1 — Score impact (1–5)

How much would a true, reliable improvement on this metric change outcomes that matter? 1 = trivial, 5 = transformative for the project.

Step 2 — Score confidence (1–5)

How confident are you that current evidence reflects a real effect? Confidence includes design, sample size, and reproducibility. Low confidence means more work is needed to know whether the impact is real.

Step 3 — Compute priority = impact × confidence

Multiply the two scores. Higher products get prioritized for immediate action. Items with high impact but low confidence are high-value for replication; low impact and high confidence are candidates to stop.

Worked example

Item A: Impact 5, Confidence 2 → Priority 10 (replicate before scaling).

Item B: Impact 3, Confidence 4 → Priority 12 (small, steady improvement — consider incremental investment).

Item C: Impact 2, Confidence 1 → Priority 2 (stop).

Using the worksheet

1. Score each candidate item during pre-huddle or first two minutes of the meeting.
2. Sort by priority and take the top items into the huddle for evidence review.
3. For high-impact/low-confidence items, add a mandatory replication action before scaling decisions.

Notes and cautions

This numeric approach is a tool to help conversations, not an arithmetic law. Use it to reduce bias and make trade-offs transparent. Combine it with qualitative judgement from subject-matter experts when needed.