Uncertainty & Evidence Checklist for Decisions

{"Title":"Uncertainty & Evidence Checklist for Decisions","IntroductionHtml":"

Purpose: Use this quick interactive checklist before acting on data. It helps teams name the decision, surface key assumptions and uncertainty, check evidence quality, and capture monitoring and contingency plans so the decision can be evaluated and reversed if needed.

When to use: Any time a decision relies on data, models, or important assumptions — especially when outcomes matter to customers, operations, safety, or cost.

How to use: Complete the fields below together (5–15 minutes). Assign an owner for each item, give short notes, and rate confidence where requested. Submit to save the record and create a traceable audit of the decision and follow-up actions.

","SubmitLabel":"Save checklist","SuccessMessage":"Checklist saved. Share the link with stakeholders and schedule the monitoring checkpoint.","DataType":"UncertaintyEvidenceChecklist","SchemaVersion":1,"Fields":[{"Key":"decisionTitle","FieldType":"text","Label":"Decision or proposal title","HelpText":"Give the decision a concise name (e.g., 'Reduce delivery cut-off time' or 'Deploy new model for lead scoring').","Required":true},{"Key":"decisionDate","FieldType":"text","Label":"Date","HelpText":"Date of this checklist entry (YYYY-MM-DD).","Required":true},{"Key":"participants","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Team / participants","HelpText":"Who participated in this assessment? Names and roles."},{"Key":"item_define_decision_yes","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"1) Is the decision and its measurable outcomes defined?","HelpText":"If yes, list the specific outcomes or metrics you will use to judge success in the notes field.","Required":true},{"Key":"item_define_decision_notes","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Notes: defined outcomes / metrics","HelpText":"Example: 'Reduce average delivery time from 48h to 36h; measure mean and 90th percentile.'"},{"Key":"item_define_decision_owner","FieldType":"text","Label":"Owner for outcomes measurement","HelpText":"Who will be accountable for tracking these metrics?"},{"Key":"item_assumptions_yes","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"2) Have you identified key assumptions that affect this decision?","HelpText":"List assumptions that must hold true for the expected outcome (e.g., demand level, resource availability).","Required":true},{"Key":"item_assumptions_notes","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Notes: key assumptions","HelpText":"Capture the most important assumptions and any evidence for them."},{"Key":"item_assumptions_owner","FieldType":"text","Label":"Owner for validating assumptions","HelpText":"Who will validate or monitor these assumptions?"},{"Key":"item_representativeness_yes","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"3) Is the data/sample representative of the population or context?","HelpText":"If not sure, note likely biases (time period, customers, geography, device).","Required":true},{"Key":"item_representativeness_notes","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Notes: sample representativeness and biases","HelpText":"E.g., 'Data from pilot region only; may not generalize.'"},{"Key":"item_representativeness_action","FieldType":"text","Label":"Action to address representativeness","HelpText":"E.g., 'Collect 2 more weeks of data across regions before full rollout.'"},{"Key":"item_uncertainty_quantify_yes","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"4) Have you quantified uncertainty (confidence intervals, margins, ranges)?","HelpText":"If a model or estimate is used, record the uncertainty bounds or a qualitative confidence level.","Required":true},{"Key":"item_uncertainty_notes","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Notes: uncertainty, confidence intervals, or qualitative confidence","HelpText":"E.g., 'Estimated lift 3% ± 1.5% (95% CI).'"},{"Key":"item_scenarios_yes","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"5) Have you framed plausible best-case and worst-case scenarios?","HelpText":"Briefly describe the outcome under optimistic and pessimistic assumptions.","Required":true},{"Key":"item_scenarios_notes","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Scenario notes (best / worst / most likely)","HelpText":"Keep each scenario to one short sentence if possible."},{"Key":"item_monitoring_required","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"6) Is specific monitoring required after taking action?","HelpText":"Define what will be measured, cadence, and the owner for monitoring.","Required":true},{"Key":"monitoring_plan","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Monitoring plan (metrics, frequency, owner)","HelpText":"E.g., 'Monitor daily delivery times; weekly summary to ops; trigger if 90th percentile > target for 2 consecutive weeks.'"},{"Key":"item_contingency_yes","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"7) Is there a contingency or rollback plan if outcomes are poor?","HelpText":"If yes, summarize the rollback or mitigation steps and triggers.","Required":true},{"Key":"contingency_plan","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Contingency / rollback plan","HelpText":"Be explicit about triggers and who has authority to execute rollback."},{"Key":"item_communication_yes","FieldType":"yesno","Label":"8) Have stakeholder communication needs been noted?","HelpText":"List audiences, key messages, and timing for updates.","Required":true},{"Key":"communication_notes","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Stakeholder communication notes","HelpText":"E.g., 'Inform customer support and sales on day of rollout; prepare FAQ.'"},{"Key":"overall_confidence","FieldType":"scale","Label":"Overall confidence in this decision (1 = very low, 5 = very high)","HelpText":"A single-team summary of how confident you feel given assumptions and evidence.","ScaleMin":1,"ScaleMax":5},{"Key":"next_steps","FieldType":"textarea","Label":"Immediate next steps and owners","HelpText":"List the immediate actions after approval (who does what, and by when)."},{"Key":"submitter","FieldType":"text","Label":"Checklist completed by","HelpText":"Name and role of the person submitting this checklist.","Required":true}]}