Forecast Scenario Workbook & Action Plan Template

{"Title":"Forecast Scenario Workbook & Action Plan Template","IntroductionHtml":"

Use this workbook to turn probabilistic forecasts into clear operational actions. Define a forecast horizon and decision objective, create baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios, assign probabilities, document assumptions and key drivers, list monitoring signals and decision triggers, and capture concrete operational actions with owners and timelines. Save this workbook to support regular reviews and triggerable contingency plans.

Tip: Keep scenario narratives short but specific. Focus on observable leading indicators you can actually measure. When assigning probabilities, treat them as your team’s best judgment and check that the three main scenarios sum to about 100% (or explain why they do not).

","SubmitLabel":"Save workbook","SuccessMessage":"Forecast scenarios and action plan saved.","DataType":"forecastScenarioWorkbook.v1","SchemaVersion":1,"Fields":[{"Key":"context","Label":"Context / Objective","FieldType":"textarea","Required":true,"HelpText":"Describe the forecasting scope, decision this forecast supports, products/services, geography, and time horizon (e.g., Q3 2026, 12-month rolling)."},{"Key":"horizon","Label":"Forecast Horizon (short label)","FieldType":"text","Required":true,"HelpText":"Short descriptor of time horizon (e.g., next 12 weeks, FY 2026)."},{"Key":"baseline_description","Label":"Baseline Scenario — Narrative","FieldType":"textarea","Required":true,"HelpText":"A concise story of the baseline outcome and why it is the most likely path."},{"Key":"baseline_drivers","Label":"Baseline — Key Drivers & Assumptions","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"List the 3–6 drivers (demand, promotions, lead times, supply, price, seasonality) and the assumptions tied to them."},{"Key":"baseline_probability","Label":"Baseline — Probability (%)","FieldType":"number","Required":true,"HelpText":"Assign a probability percentage for this scenario. Aim for probabilities across scenarios to sum to ~100%."},{"Key":"baseline_actions","Label":"Baseline — Operational Actions","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Concrete actions (procurement, staffing, inventory, routing). Include owners, approximate timelines, and any budget or approval needed."},{"Key":"baseline_triggers","Label":"Baseline — Decision Triggers & Leading Signals","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Observable metrics or events that would confirm movement toward this scenario (e.g., weekly orders > X, supplier lead time > Y days). Include measurement frequency."},{"Key":"optimistic_description","Label":"Optimistic Scenario — Narrative","FieldType":"textarea","Required":true,"HelpText":"Describe the upside scenario and the conditions that would create it."},{"Key":"optimistic_drivers","Label":"Optimistic — Key Drivers & Assumptions","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Drivers and assumptions supporting the optimistic outcome."},{"Key":"optimistic_probability","Label":"Optimistic — Probability (%)","FieldType":"number","Required":true,"HelpText":"Percent probability for the optimistic case."},{"Key":"optimistic_actions","Label":"Optimistic — Operational Actions to Capture Upside","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Actions to scale up quickly or seize opportunity (additional shifts, expedited procurement, targeted promotions). Include owners and constraints."},{"Key":"optimistic_triggers","Label":"Optimistic — Decision Triggers & Leading Signals","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Indicators that should prompt execution of the optimistic actions (thresholds, growth rates, confirmation windows)."},{"Key":"pessimistic_description","Label":"Pessimistic Scenario — Narrative","FieldType":"textarea","Required":true,"HelpText":"Describe the downside scenario and how it could occur."},{"Key":"pessimistic_drivers","Label":"Pessimistic — Key Drivers & Assumptions","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Drivers and assumptions that increase downside risk (supply disruption, demand shock, regulatory change)."},{"Key":"pessimistic_probability","Label":"Pessimistic — Probability (%)","FieldType":"number","Required":true,"HelpText":"Percent probability for the pessimistic case."},{"Key":"pessimistic_actions","Label":"Pessimistic — Operational Mitigations & Contingencies","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Containment and mitigation steps (safety stock deployment, supplier alternatives, temporary staffing reductions). Include owners and lead times to enact."},{"Key":"pessimistic_triggers","Label":"Pessimistic — Decision Triggers & Leading Signals","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Leading indicators and thresholds that should escalate response (e.g., fill rate < X, inbound delays > Y days)."},{"Key":"sensitivity_analysis","Label":"Sensitivity Analysis — Key Variables & Impact","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Which variables most change outcomes? For each, note direction and approximate impact on the forecast (e.g., 1-day lead-time increase lowers fill rate by ~2%)."},{"Key":"scenario_metrics","Label":"Monitoring Signals & Metrics (names, units, frequency)","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"List the specific KPIs to track (metric name, units, how often measured, and who owns the metric). Examples: weekly sales units, open purchase orders, supplier lead time (days)."},{"Key":"early_warning_thresholds","Label":"Early-Warning Thresholds (metric -> threshold)","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"For each monitoring metric, define threshold(s) or rates of change that should trigger a review or action. Be specific (metric: threshold)."},{"Key":"backtest_notes","Label":"Backtest & Validation Notes","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Summarize recent model/backtest performance, known biases, data limitations, and whether model recalibration is needed."},{"Key":"owners_and_risks","Label":"Owners, Dependencies & Key Risks","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Assign owners for monitoring, actions, and escalation. Note dependencies (lead times, approvals, capacity) and top risks to the plan."},{"Key":"contingency_resourcing","Label":"Contingency Resource Plan (pre-approved actions/limits)","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Document pre-approved resources (budget, overtime, emergency PO limits) and how to access them if a scenario occurs."},{"Key":"communication_plan","Label":"Stakeholder Communication — Messages, Visuals & Cadence","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"Who needs to know, what they need to know, recommended visuals (fan chart, probability ranges, trigger dashboards), and reporting cadence."},{"Key":"review_schedule","Label":"Review Cadence & Next Steps","FieldType":"textarea","HelpText":"How often will the team review these scenarios, who attends, and what are the immediate next steps after this save?"}]}