Probabilistic Forecasting, Ensembles & Scenario Tools

Methods and tools to build uncertainty-aware forecasts, ensembles, and actionable scenarios for planning and risk-aware decisions.


Guide

Probabilistic Forecasting Examples, Ensembles & Scenario Toolkit

Practical worked examples and templates for building, evaluating, and using uncertainty‑aware forecasts: quantile forecasts, simple ensembles, and a lightweight Bayesian approach. Includes evaluation guidance (CRPS, calibration), common pitfalls, and scenario templates that connect probabilistic outputs to staffing, capacity, inventory, and financial planning.

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