Probabilistic Forecasting, Ensembles & Scenario Tools

Methods and tools to build uncertainty-aware forecasts, ensembles, and actionable scenarios for planning and risk-aware decisions.


Workbook

Forecasting & Planning Workbook

Interactive workbook with step-by-step problem framing, a data-preparation checklist, baseline forecast choices, seasonal decomposition cues, configurable backtesting plan, selectable error metrics (including CRPS for probabilistic forecasts), and a scenario-planning worksheet that links forecasts to concrete operational decisions (inventory, staffing, budgets). Responses are saved so teams can iterate, compare runs, and track follow-through.

Members: